INDIA’S QUIET RISE IN A MULTIPOLAR WORLD

The world is no longer what it was at the turn of the century. The unipolar dominance of the United States after the Cold War has steadily eroded. Today, global power is fragmented, dynamic, and often unpredictable — welcome to the era of multipolarity. In this shifting landscape, India’s role is growing — not with loud proclamations, but through a quiet, deliberate assertion of its interests, values, and influence.

Multipolarity is not new; it echoes the great power politics of the 19th century. What’s different today is the complexity and interconnectedness of global affairs. The U.S. remains a significant power, but no longer an unchallenged one. China’s rapid rise and assertive posture have disrupted older balances. Russia remains a military heavyweight despite its diplomatic isolation in parts of the world. Europe is searching for its own voice. Regional actors like Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, and middle powers in Africa and the Gulf are exercising growing influence. India finds itself at the center of this reordering, not merely as a spectator but as a consequential player.

India’s economic rise is at the heart of its growing global relevance. With its nominal GDP now exceeding $4.2 trillion, India has officially overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, according to the International Monetary Fund’s 2025 projections. This milestone places India just behind the United States, China, and Germany, with forecasts indicating it could surpass Germany by 2027–28 to become the third-largest economy globally.

Several factors underpin this growth. First, India’s demographic dividend—a median age of 28—provides a vast and youthful workforce, a stark contrast to aging populations in China, Europe, and Japan. Second, the country’s digital revolution, driven by initiatives like Aadhaar and UPI, has transformed financial inclusion and spurred innovation. Third, the government’s "Make in India" campaign and Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes aim to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing, particularly in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and defense.

This economic emergence is not just about trade statistics. It translates into political capital. A confident economy gives India leverage in multilateral negotiations, trade deals, and global governance reforms.

India’s G20 Presidency in 2023 was emblematic of its evolving global identity. While the West was consumed by the Ukraine conflict, India placed the interests of the Global South firmly on the agenda — food security, debt relief, climate finance, and development equity. The inclusion of the African Union as a permanent G20 member — pushed by India — demonstrated both principle and pragmatism.

This approach enhances India’s diplomatic clout and serves as a counterbalance to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has faced criticism for debt-trap diplomacy. For many developing nations, India offers a relatable model: a large, diverse democracy charting its own development path without becoming subordinate to great power dictates. In amplifying their voices, India enhances its own.

India’s foreign policy is often misunderstood as simply a modern version of non-alignment. In truth, today’s India practices a more sophisticated doctrine: strategic autonomy. It engages widely while retaining decision-making independence — what analysts describe as “non-alignment 2.0”.

One of the clearest expressions of this strategy is India’s ability to maintain strong ties with both the United States and Russia. While deepening defense cooperation with the U.S. and participating actively in the QUAD, India continues to import significant quantities of Russian oil and arms despite Western sanctions.

Similarly, despite border tensions with China, including the deadly 2020 Galwan clash, India maintains economic engagement with Beijing while countering its influence through strategic partnerships. India also balances relations with Europe, Central Asia, BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

This balancing act is not hedging — it is realism. Strategic autonomy allows India to build issue-based partnerships without sacrificing sovereignty or becoming trapped in zero-sum rivalries.

Historically focused on land borders, India is now pivoting toward maritime security as global trade increasingly depends on sea routes. This shift is evident in expanding naval partnerships, joint exercises like Malabar, and strengthened ties with island nations such as the Maldives, Seychelles, and Mauritius.

Initiatives like the SAGAR doctrine, coastal surveillance systems, and the commissioning of indigenous assets such as INS Vikrant reflect India’s intent to shape the Indo-Pacific order and safeguard vital trade corridors.

Beyond hard power, India’s soft power plays a significant role. Its cultural influence through Bollywood, yoga, and cuisine, technological leadership via companies like TCS and Infosys, and a global diaspora exceeding 32 million people enhance its international standing.

Initiatives like Vaccine Maitri during the COVID-19 pandemic and leadership in climate action through the International Solar Alliance have further reinforced India’s image as a responsible global actor.

With rising influence come rising expectations. While many see India as a counterbalance to China or a leader of the Global South, these roles must be balanced against domestic challenges such as poverty, inequality, infrastructure gaps, and job creation.

India’s rise is not about replacing any power or forming a new bloc. Its ambition is to act as a balancing power — stabilizing tensions, engaging all sides, and contributing to global rule-making rather than rule-following.

As the world enters a prolonged phase of multipolar flux, India is not merely adapting to this reality — it is helping to define it, quietly.