January 23, 2025

From Cold War to Hot Zone: China’s Strategic View on NATO’s Eastward Expansion

The Polymath Team

The eastward expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe has long been a point of geopolitical contention, predominantly involving Western nations and Russia. However, with China’s growing influence in global security and supply chains, its perspective on the issue has gained prominence despite its geographic distance from Europe. China views NATO’s expansion as a deliberate effort by the West to reshape the global order in its favor, perpetuating Western hegemony while destabilizing the balance of power. For China, NATO’s actions represent a broader attempt to marginalize rising powers like itself and Russia, countering its vision of a multipolar world where no single bloc dominates. As China’s global influence grows, so does its resolve to challenge Western maneuvers that it perceives as destabilizing and exclusionary.

NATO was established in 1949 as a collective Western military alliance aimed at countering the Soviet Union’s growing influence and the perceived threat of communism during the Cold War. China underwent a significant transformation following the Communist Revolution of 1949, aligning ideologically with the Soviet Union in the early years to confront Western imperialism and bolster its nascent communist state. However, this alignment was short-lived as the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s created deep divisions due to Mao Zedong’s criticism of Khrushchev’s de-Stalinization policies and peaceful coexistence with the West. Territorial disputes and competition for influence in the communist world exacerbated tensions, culminating in armed clashes along the Ussuri River in the late 1960s, marking the breakdown of their alliance. NATO and China had little direct interaction during this period. China’s primary focus was on consolidating its domestic power structure, countering Soviet dominance in the communist bloc, and asserting itself on the global stage as an independent player rather than a subordinate ally of the Soviet Union.

In 2019, NATO’s London summit marked a pivotal moment as the Alliance recognized the need to address China’s expanding influence, including its military capabilities, economic leverage, and technological advancements. NATO leaders recognized both the potential opportunities and challenges presented by China’s policies, underscoring the importance of advancing strategic and comprehensive dialogue within the alliance. Nevertheless, there were concerns about the possibility of NATO expanding its priorities beyond its traditional Euro-Atlantic focus.

Subsequent efforts, including the “NATO 2030” reflection process, played a pivotal role in broadening the Alliance’s strategic outlook to address emerging global challenges. As part of this initiative, an independent group of experts provided key recommendations, urging NATO to confront the geopolitical and ideological competition posed by major powers like China and Russia. The experts advocated for a comprehensive approach that extended NATO’s focus beyond its traditional Euro-Atlantic sphere, emphasizing the importance of strengthening partnerships with critical Indo-Pacific nations such as Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. While the recommendations were not officially adopted as a NATO policy document, they significantly shaped internal and external dialogues about the Alliance’s future direction.

At the 2021 Brussels Summit, NATO leaders articulated their growing apprehensions regarding China’s strategic activities, emphasizing several key areas of concern. They pointed to the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear capabilities, its increasingly close military cooperation with Russia, and the country’s civil-military integration strategies, which blur the lines between civilian technologies and military applications. Additionally, NATO highlighted China’s involvement in cyber activities and disinformation campaigns aimed at destabilizing democratic systems. While the summit communiqué advocated for sustained dialogue with Beijing, it firmly acknowledged the systemic challenges China poses to the rules-based international order. The alliance’s cautious yet firm stance evolved further at the 2022 Madrid Summit. Here, NATO drew attention to the strategic ramifications of China’s economic influence and its deepening coordination with Russia, particularly efforts to challenge global stability and undermine the international system. This summit reinforced NATO’s resolve to address the multifaceted risks posed by China’s actions while continuing to call for constructive engagement where possible. By 2023, at the Vilnius Summit, NATO leaders expanded these discussions and strongly urged Beijing to distance itself from supporting Russia’s war efforts and to uphold international norms. This marked a clear signal of NATO’s intent to address China’s role in global affairs, particularly its potential to influence conflicts and its broader impact on the global security.

China’s growing influence in the Euro-Atlantic sphere poses a significant threat to NATO, as Beijing’s strategic actions—ranging from advanced naval expansions to cyber operations and investments in critical European infrastructure—undermine NATO’s operational and strategic cohesion. While NATO recognizes the risks posed by China’s disruption potential in logistics and communication networks, its options are constrained by China’s entrenched role in the global supply chain. China’s dominance in manufacturing, technology, and trade has created an economic dependency that NATO members cannot easily escape. This reliance limits NATO’s ability to confront China’s assertive rise directly, forcing it to expand its influence and partnerships beyond traditional borders. By extending its reach into non-member regions and emphasizing collective defense, NATO aims to counterbalance China’s growing leverage, but the economic and technological interdependence makes this an uphill battle, highlighting the geopolitical dilemma of addressing security threats while navigating an increasingly China-centric global economy.

Further complicating this scenario is Beijing’s tacit alignment with Moscow, which exacerbates European security challenges and strengthens Russia’s position in conflicts like the one in Ukraine. Beyond the Euro-Atlantic region, China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific particularly in South China sea and Taiwan, has significant strategic implications. This area has become a focal point for global economic growth and technological innovation, making its stability a matter of international concern.

To address these challenges, NATO has significantly deepened its engagement with key Indo-Pacific partners such as Japan, Australia, South Korea, and New Zealand. Additionally, collaborations like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), which includes India, have been established to address shared concerns, particularly regarding China’s assertive expansion in the South China Sea. These relationships have transitioned from informal dialogues on issues like counterterrorism and cybersecurity to well-defined strategic partnerships. Such partnerships now encompass joint military exercises, regular high-level strategic dialogues, and capacity-building initiatives to strengthen regional stability. The inclusion of Indo-Pacific partners in flagship NATO summits highlights the growing recognition of their role in maintaining a stable and rules-based international order. Importantly, NATO and its partners have carefully framed their cooperation around shared principles, such as the preservation of democratic values, rule of law, and addressing global security challenges. This approach fosters effective collaboration by avoiding overt antagonism toward China, minimizing the risk of escalating regional tensions, and creating a framework rooted in shared values that balances assertiveness with diplomacy in an increasingly multipolar world.

Despite these advancements, internal debates within NATO highlight the complexity of its approach to China and the Indo-Pacific. Some member states advocate for deeper engagement in the region to counterbalance Beijing’s influence, while others warn against diverting resources and focus from NATO’s core Euro-Atlantic responsibilities. To navigate this intricate landscape, NATO is prioritizing enhanced understanding of the Indo-Pacific’s geostrategic dynamics and exploring synergies in capability development and operational planning with regional partners. However, China views NATO’s interest as a challenge to its influence, responding by bolstering alliances like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, expanding military capabilities, and leveraging economic initiatives such as the Belt and Road. This dynamic highlight the delicate balance NATO must strike to stay agile and cohesive while managing the complexities of the evolving global order.

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