July 5, 2025

INDIA’S QUIET RISE IN A MULTIPOLAR WORLD

The Polymath Team

The world is no longer what it was at the turn of the century. The unipolar dominance of the United States after the Cold War has steadily eroded. Today, global power is fragmented, dynamic, and often unpredictable — welcome to the era of multipolarity. In this shifting landscape, India’s role is growing — not with loud proclamations, but through a quiet, deliberate assertion of its interests, values, and influence.

Multipolarity is not new; it echoes the great power politics of the 19th century. What’s different today is the complexity and interconnectedness of global affairs. The U.S. remains a significant power, but no longer an unchallenged one. China’s rapid rise and assertive posture have disrupted older balances. Russia remains a military heavyweight despite its diplomatic isolation in parts of the world. Europe is searching for its own voice. Regional actors like Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, and even middle powers in Africa and the Gulf are exercising growing influence. India finds itself at the center of this reordering, not merely as a spectator but as a consequential player.

India’s economic rise is at the heart of its growing global relevance. With its nominal GDP now exceeding $4.2 trillion, India has officially overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, according to the International Monetary Fund’s 2025 projections. This milestone places India just behind the United States, China, and Germany, with forecasts indicating it could surpass Germany by 2027–28 to become the third-largest economy globally. Several factors underpin this growth. First, India’s demographic dividend—a median age of 28—provides a vast and youthful workforce, a stark contrast to aging populations in China, Europe, and Japan. Second, the country’s digital revolution, driven by initiatives like Aadhaar (the world’s largest biometric ID system) and UPI (a real-time payment system), has transformed financial inclusion and spurred innovation. Third, the government’s “Make in India” campaign and Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes aim to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing, particularly in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and defense. This economic emergence is not just about trade statistics. It translates into political capital. A confident economy gives India leverage in multilateral negotiations, trade deals, and global governance reforms.

India’s G20 Presidency in 2023 was emblematic of its evolving global identity. While the West was consumed by the Ukraine conflict, India placed the interests of the Global South firmly on the agenda — food security, debt relief, climate finance, and development equity. The inclusion of the African Union as a permanent G20 member — pushed by India — demonstrated both principle and pragmatism. It signaled New Delhi’s commitment to reforming global governance structures that remain skewed towards the post-World War II order. This approach not only enhances India’s diplomatic clout but also serves as a counterbalance to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has faced criticism for debt-trap diplomacy. For many developing nations, India offers a relatable model: a large, diverse democracy charting its own development path without becoming subordinate to great power dictates. In amplifying their voices, India enhances its own.

India’s foreign policy is often misunderstood as simply a modern version of non-alignment. In truth, today’s India practices a more sophisticated doctrine: strategic autonomy. It does not avoid engagements; rather, it engages widely while retaining decision-making independence. In today’s multipolar world, this approach has evolved into what analysts call “non-alignment 2.0”. One of the most striking examples of this strategy is India’s ability to maintain strong ties with both the United States and Russia. While deepening defense cooperation with the U.S. through agreements like COMCASA and active participation in the QUAD (a strategic alliance with the U.S., Japan, and Australia), India continues to import significant quantities of Russian oil and arms, despite Western sanctions. Similarly, despite border tensions with China, including the deadly 2020 Galwan clash, India maintains economic engagement with Beijing while simultaneously countering its influence through partnerships like the QUAD. India hosts regular engagements with Europe and Central Asia while also participating actively in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This balancing act is not hedging — it is hard-headed realism. India understands that in a fragmented world, alliance structures are fluid, and interests don’t always align perfectly. Strategic autonomy allows New Delhi to build issue-based partnerships without sacrificing sovereignty or becoming entangled in zero-sum rivalries.

For much of its history, India has concentrated on securing its land borders, given its continental outlook and history of land-based conflicts. However, with around 90% of global trade moving through sea routes, India is now strategically shifting focus toward maritime security and influence in the Indo-Pacific region. This transformation is evident in its deepening naval partnerships with key global powers such as the United States, France, Australia, and Japan, with regular joint exercises like Malabar showcasing enhanced interoperability and shared strategic interests. Additionally, India is quietly expanding its influence by strengthening defense cooperation with island nations like the Maldives, Seychelles, and Mauritius — strategic locations along vital sea lanes that support energy and trade flows. While China’s aggressive maritime expansionism informs part of India’s strategy, the broader objective is to secure trade routes, maintain stability in surrounding waters, and contribute to regional security. Initiatives like the SAGAR doctrine, the deployment of coastal surveillance systems, and the commissioning of indigenous naval assets such as INS Vikrant reflect India’s commitment to becoming a formidable maritime power capable of shaping the Indo-Pacific order.

Apart from its hard power, India exerts substantial soft power through its rich cultural heritage, technological prowess, and expansive diaspora. Global appreciation for Bollywood, yoga, and Indian cuisine reflects the country’s cultural reach, while the prominence of its IT industry—led by companies like TCS and Infosys—strengthens its position as a global technology leader. The Indian diaspora, exceeding 32 million people, significantly influences international perceptions, especially in the U.S., UK, and Gulf regions. India’s “Vaccine Maitri” initiative during the COVID-19 crisis—supplying vaccines to over 90 nations—enhanced its image as a compassionate and responsible global partner. Moreover, its proactive role in climate action, notably through the International Solar Alliance, underscores India’s growing influence in global governance.

India’s expanding global presence has led to heightened international expectations. Some view it as a strategic counterbalance to China, others anticipate its leadership among developing nations, and many envision it as a mediator between Western and non-Western powers. While such aspirations are encouraging, they must be grounded in a realistic understanding of India’s limitations. Despite its progress, India continues to face pressing domestic issues such as poverty, inequality, gaps in healthcare, and the need for job creation. Its infrastructure, though improving, still falls short when compared to countries like China, and the effectiveness of its state institutions varies widely across regions and sectors. As India seeks to balance global responsibilities with domestic needs, it must adopt a measured approach to international engagement.

India’s rise is not aimed at replacing any power or creating a new bloc. Its ambition is more subtle: to become a balancing power — a country that can engage all sides, stabilize regional tensions, and contribute to rule-making rather than rule-following. As the world enters a long phase of multipolar flux, India’s ability to maintain strategic autonomy, expand its economic heft, and represent emerging voices will define not only its own future but will increasingly shape the contours of the global order itself. In this sense, India is not merely adapting to multipolarity — it is helping to define it, quietly.

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